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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.