Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.